The Sixth Cents XV: Vengence

I'm going to do a little preview of the BCS National Championship Game today, but I haven't had the time to go into the detail that I'd like. I would like to start out by saying this to those people who think the BCS failed (again.)

Who deserves to be there more than LSU and Ohio State? I give you the teams that had arguments and the reverse order for which I feel they deserved to be playing tonight.

Hawaii - The only undefeated team in the nation did everything that was asked of them except one thing. Schedule a quality opponent. Two home games against Boise State and Washington were the most difficult teams they played and they won them despite being behind in both. Unfortunately, that's not good enough. They proved this in the Sugar Bowl when Georgia absolutely crushed them. I actually felt sorry for them that night as the Dawgs blew them out with what looked like very little effort.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies only two loses were to teams that, at the time, were ranked #2 in the nation. In a season where #2 teams lose almost every single week, that's not saying very much. What says even less is that one of those defeats was to a Boston College team that fell off the wagon late in the year. The other? Well, it just happens to be the LSU team playing in tonight's game. The score? 48-7. I don't care that it was in the second week of the season. You can't rematch a game like that, and you couldn't put them ahead of LSU in good conscience.

USC - The Trojans finished the regular season 10-2 and easily mopped the floor with an Illinois team that was in over it's head. However, one of those losses was at home to a Stanford team that only won four games. FOUR. Those words included two preseason "contenders" in USC and Cal, but this team also lost to TCU and Notre Dame. That's an awful loss for the Trojans and enough to keep them out.

Georgia - The Dawgs (along with the Trojans) are probably playing better football then anyone in college football at the end of the season and they ripped the only undefeated team in Division I-A in the Sugar Bowl. However, they didn't win their conference. Not only that, but they didn't even play in the conference championship game after losing at home to South Carolina and getting destroyed in Knoxville by the Vols 35-14.

Oklahoma - The Sooners were the one team that I thought could have made a solid argument. They finished the regular season 10-2 and won the Big XII with a dominating performance over then #1 Missouri (again, that doesn't say much this season.) Their two losses bother me a little more than LSU's do in terms of the quality of the opponent (Colorado and Texas Tech against Kentucky and Arkansas.) However, LSU also needed six overtimes to drop their two games.

LSU - The Tigers earned their tickets by playing in, and winning, the toughest conference in college football. I don't care what team you're a fan of, there is no discussion when it comes to strength of schedule. The SEC is tough. Period. LSU had as many losses as the next best contender(two) but both of those games were in Triple Overtime. The first was at then #17 Kentucky which finished a respectable 8-5 and had suffered it's first defeat the week before. Their second loss was at home in the last week of the regular season to unranked Arkansas, also 8-5 on the year. This one is tough to justify, but to offer two quick excuses for them, look no further than these: 1. Darren MacFadden. 2. Injuries.

Ohio State - The Big Ten is down. I'll freely admit this fact. The non-conference schedule included at a Washington team that wasn't good, but has some young players who will get the to a bowl NEXT season and three Ohio all girl's schools. Well, at least that's what the media would have you believe. Youngstown State is Coach Tressel's old school and is no worse of an opponent than LSU's game against Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech's game against William & Mary, Oklahoma's games against Utah State and North Texas, and Georgia's game against Western Carolina. The Buckeyes lost at home to an Illinois team that got mauled in the Rose Bowl, but the head referee in this game is also under investigation for gambling and there were at least a couple major calls that went incorrectly against the Scarlet and Grey. This is also a rivalry game in Illinois' eyes, but not so much in those of the Buckeyes and the Illini always play OSU tough. Don't get me wrong, the #1 teams in the country should have won anyways, but in a season where the rest of the real contenders lost twice, how can you say that Ohio State's ONE loss is worse than their TWO?

Enough of the soapbox, on to my cents....

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I. WHAT THEY'VE DONE SO FAR

For all the talk about how horrible the Big Ten is, and I agree its down, if you look at the strength of schedules for these two teams its not so different. LSU finished with the #15 most difficult schedule and Ohio the #39 ranked slate of games. Not as awful as some say it is, is it?See above for the details on what the did to earn their way into the title, but here are both teams schedules with pre-bowl rankings of the opponents:

LSU (11-2, 7-2 SEC West)
8/30 at Mississippi State, W 45-0
9/8 #3 Virginia Tech, W 48-7
9/15 Middle Tennessee, W 44-0
9/22 South Carolina, W 28-16
9/29 at Tulane, W 34-9
10/6 #12 Florida, W 28-24
10/13 at Kentucky, L 43-37
10/20 #23 Auburn, W 30-24
11/3 at Alabama, W 41-34
11/10 Louisiana Tech, W 58-10
11/17 at Mississippi, W 41-24
11/23 Arkansas, L 50-48
12/1 #16 Tennessee, W 21-14 (Neutral Site - SEC Championship)

Ohio State (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
9/1 Youngstown State, W 38-6
9/8 Akron, W 20-2
9/15 at Washington, W 33-14
9/22 Northwestern, W 58-7
9/29 at Minnesota, W 30-7
10/6 at Purdue, W 23-7
10/13 Kent State, W 48-3
10/20 Michigan State, W 24-17
10/27 at Penn State W 37-17
11/3 #18 Wisconsin, W 38-17
11/10 #13 Illinois, L 28-21
11/17 at Michigan, W 14-3

SLIGHT EDGE: LSU
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2. WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL

LSU has a dynamic offense led by the quarterback play of Matt Flynn and backup Ryan Perrilloux. They will likely try to mimic what Florida did to the Buckeyes last January by having a handful of scripted plays for the option attacking backup. Perrilloux showed he is capable of running the offense himself in the SEC Championship when Flynn was out injured. If Flynn gets hurt again, I'd say they have the best backup in the nation. Running back Jacob Hester is a solid runner with over 1,000 yards on the season and Early Doucet has the type of speed that will strike fear in any defense.

The Buckeyes have the #1 defense in the country, although they did it against a pretty weak schedule. On the plus side, Ohio State only allowed 128 points this season and some of those cannot be blamed on the D. The Bucks allowed two kick returns for scores, two turnovers for scores and a safety. Against Washington and Purdue, the backups surrendered touchdowns in the closing minutes of the game when the question was no longer in doubt. Put it all together and the Bucks only gave up ony 84 points. That's exactly 7 points per game allowed by the defensive starters. Led by All-Americans James Lauranaitis, Malcolm Jenkins, and Vernon Gholston, this team can shut you down on all three levels. The run defense has been the weakest spot so far, and we all know tOSU is known for run stuffing, so that says something. Jenkins will likely be left on an island to cover Doucet as the front seven (and sometimes eight) will be focused in on getting to the quarterback and stopping Hester.

EDGE: EVEN
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3. WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

You've heard enough about the players Ohio won't be using on Monday night. Troy Smith, Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Antonio Pittman are all gone. We know. But if there is one thing that puts THIS Buckeye unit ahead of last year's version, its the offensive line. Across the front Alex Boone, Steve Rehring, Jim Cordle, Ben Person, Kirk Barton are the best unit the country. 5th year Junior quarterback Todd Boeckman has only been sacked 14 times this year and his receivers, while not as fast as the 7-11 combo from a year ago, might be deeper. Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline are both NFL ready route runners and pass catchers and Ray Small and Dane Sanzenbacher aren't too far behind with Small possessing game breaking speed. The key to this game is keeping the defense fresh. To do that you will see a steady dosage of Chris "Beanie" Wells. This kid was the #1 running back recruit in the nation two years ago and began to show signs of his skills late in 2006. In 2007, he battled through nagging injuries and still put together the 7th most rushing yards in school history. Pretty impressive given the company that puts him in, you may have heard of Eddie George and Archie Griffin.

On defense, I've heard about how good the Tigers are over and over again. Through the first five games, they were the best in the nation, but then the wheels came off a little bit. They allowed a TON of rushing touchdowns including FIVE by the unranked Razorbacks when LSU was putting ten men in the box on every snap. Glenn Dorsey has had time to heal up and we'll get to see exactly how good he really is when he goes up against the Buckeyes front line. The led the SEC in turnovers created and finished a +24 on the year as a team. Opponents have been putting up over 24 points per game against them for the bulk of the season and although I'm not really an avid follower of the SEC, I can't name another Tiger defender. I can name 2-3 on each of the other SEC powers. Interesting.

EDGE: EVEN
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4. SPECIAL TEAMS

Ryan Pretorious is fairly accurate having missed just four kicks all season, but he doesn't have a strong leg at all. His touchbacks are few and far between and his long (50) is also the only kick he attempted of 50 yards or longer. The punter A.J. Trapasso is tremendous and is excellent at pinning opponents inside the 20. On the return front, Small and Hartline are fairly capable of breaking one, but the Buckeyes also surrendered two kick returns for scores this season.

The Tigers kicker, Colt David, is no better than Pretorious. 25-32 on the year with a long of 49. 0/1 beyond 50 and just 6/9 from the 40-49 range. He also missed three kicks inside 40, so both of these teams will need to put the ball into the red zone if they want to guarantee points. The punter, Patrick Fisher, has a monster leg. But, and I say this jokingly, as Fisher goes, so go the Tigers. The only game in which he averaged under 41 yards per punt was Kentucky, where he only averaged 33.8 on four attempts. We all know how that game turned out. As I mentioned, Early Doucet can flat out fly and so can Trindon Holliday and they are both threats to bust one loose at any time. Trapasso has a big leg, so he'll need to be careful not to out-kick his coverage and give the Buckeyes a chance to get up field and slow him down.

EDGE: LSU
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5. COACHES

Les Miles is a Michigan man, so he's very familiar with the Buckeyes and how they play football. He's also been known in 2007 for taking risks. While not always the greatest coaching decisions, he has showed the confidence he has in his players and they, in turn, love him for it. After being adamant about turning down the Michigan job and sticking to his word unlike his predecessor Nick Saban, he has earned the trust and respect of his team. LSU is one of the most penalized teams in the country, so don't discount that factor.

Jim Tressel is Ohio State. Amazing that just over years ago most of Buckeye Nation gave a collective, "Who?" to the news of the hiring. This is his fifth BCS game in seven years and third shot at the National Championship. He keeps things close to his trademark sweater vest and doesn't take many risks. Despite last year's debacle, I still have complete confidence in his "in game" coaching abilities.

EDGE: tOSU
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6. PREDICTION

This is the toughest call I've ever had to make. I feel like everything is pointed in the Tigers favor. If I go with the favorite and my team takes the upset win, I'll regret that forever. If I take my Buckeyes and they get blown out in a repeat of last season's beating by Florida, I'll look like a homer that couldn't see the facts. Here's the thing: I honestly feel like this will be a very close, defensive game. I see some of Ohio State-Miami in this game and I truly believe this will be one of the best title games we've seen. I have faith in the Ohio State running game and defense and that's the only reason I'm going the way I am. I really hope I'm right as an Ohio State loss will likely hurt the program's recruiting and will damage the reputation of the Big Ten even further.

Final Score: The Ohio State University 27 - LSU 25