The Sixth Cents V - Fiesta Bowl Preview

We are exactly 6 days away from the biggest BCS game in history that WON’T decide the National Championship. Because of that, I’m restructuring my Six Cents this week to break down the Fiesta Bowl. All of the gamblers out there are aware that money has been piling up on the Irish over the past three weeks since this game was announced. This has caused the spread to plummet from OSU -7 ½ all the way to -4. I liked it before, but I absolutely love it now. Here’s why…
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1. WHAT THEY’VE DONE SO FAR

Both of these teams finished the season at 9-2 and earned automatic at-large berths to the BCS. The question of whether or not Oregon (10-1) got snubbed is a non-issue. These teams earned their way in by virtue of their BCS ranking. The Buckeyes finished the season ranked #4 on the strength of six consecutive wins, with four coming against ranked opponents. According to rules, if a team from a BCS conference finished in the top four but doesn't earn it's conference's automatic slot, it still gets in. The Irish finished #6 with five consecutive wins. The rules also state that if a non-BCS conference school finishes in the top six, just at Utah did a year ago, then it, too, receives a bid.

tOSU lost only to #2 Texas and #3 Penn State, one at home and one on the road, by a total of 10 points. Notre Dame lost to unranked Michigan State in OT and then to #1 USC in a heart-breaker, both coming at home by just 3 points. The Irish and Buckeyes had only two common opponents, Michigan and Michigan State. The Buckeyes were 2-0 in those games and the Irish were 1-1. The Buckeyes played four teams that are currently ranked, and went 2-2. The Irish played just two teams that are ranked right now and went 1-1.

Finally, Ohio State's opponents went a combined 73-51 this year and they played seven teams with winning records of 7-5 or better and six bowl teams. Notre Dame's opponents were just 61-64 and only three of those teams have winning records. The Irish have played just three teams that will appear in bowl games.

Notre Dame (9-2)
9/3 at Pittsburgh W, 42-21
9/10 at Michigan W, 17-10
9/17 Michigan State L, 41-44 (OT)
9/24 at Washington W, 36-17
10/1 at Purdue W, 49-28
10/15 USC L, 31-34
10/22 BYU W, 49-23
11/5 Tennessee W, 41-21
11/12 Navy W, 42-21
11/19 Syracuse W, 34-10
11/26 at Stanford W, 38-31

Ohio State (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten)
9/3 Miami (Ohio) W, 34-14
9/10 Texas L, 22-25
9/17 San Diego State W, 27-6
9/24 Iowa W, 31-6
10/8 at Penn State L, 10-17
10/15 Michigan State W, 35-24
10/22 at Indiana W, 41-10
10/29 at Minnesota W, 45-31
11/5 Illinois W, 40-2
11/12 Northwestern W, 48-7
11/19 at Michigan W, 25-21

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
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2. WHEN NOTRE DAME HAS THE BALL

This match-up is where, I believe, the game will be decided. Just how good is Brady Quinn and this Irish offense? I understand how completely biased I am, but anyone would have to agree that while they are very good, they are also a bit overrated. While they were only held under 31 points once this season, they also only played one team that could be considered even a mediocre defense, Michigan. I remember that game vividly. It took a number of Wolverine turnovers inside the red-zone for Notre Dame to hang on.

Ohio State is allowing just 14.8 points per game this season. Take away a poor first half against Michigan State and the second string playing almost the entire second half at Minnesota and it would have been closer to 12. Will the Bucks hold the Irish under 15? I don’t think so. In my opinion, the Irish probably won’t score 20-24 points without the benefit of defensive/special teams touchdowns.

The Irish will have little chance of establishing a running game. Their rushing attack ranks just 48th in the NCAA and Ohio State is 1st against the run allowing just 2.36 yards per carry. The Bucks disciplined front four of Pitcock, Green, Kudla and Patterson will over-power the Irish line creating open lanes for the best trio of linebackers in the country to come pouring through like a sieve. Whether or not Bobby Carpenter will play is still unknown, but even without him it will be difficult to run against the Bucks with Hawk and Schlegel plugging the holes quickly and hitting harder than anything the Irish have seen. Tressell has options if Carpenter isn't ready. He could go to the nickel package more often as he did against Michigan, but he has also had six weeks to work with freshman James Laurinaitis.

Notre Dame does have a cool headed QB in Quinn and two 1,000 yard receivers in Samardzija (ugliest man in college football) and Stovall. The Ohio State secondary is their weakness, but they actually match up okay against the Irish's 4th ranked passing game because they are big and fast. The Bucks are 36th in the nation and allowing only 200 yards per game. They have only allowed eight passing TDs, less than one per game. You will see the Irish make a couple of big plays down field, but the two Buckeye safeties, Whitner and Salley, will come up and hit hard. This will be the Irish’s first real physical test of the season. The Bucks also have 39 sacks on the year, so Quinn better have his track spikes on. A.J. Hawk is actually dating Quinn's oldest sister, but that won't stop the consensus All-American from hitting. I don't think anything could do that.

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
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3. WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

Notre Dame gives up yards...in bunches. They’ve employed the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy that Tressell used on Miami (FL) in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl win. They rank just 97th in the country against the pass and 26th against the run. The Irish have relied heavily on timely turnovers and opponents who get impatient and go for the home-run ball too often. You won’t see this from tOSU. The key for the Buckeyes will be converting field position into touchdowns. If they have to kick too many field goals, this will be a close game. However, if Smith can continue to punch it into the end zone like he has in recent weeks, this could turn ugly for the Irish.

Very seldom will you see the Bucks in their traditional "I" or "off-set I" formations. “Tressell ball” relies heavily on ball control and good decision making, so he has slowly developed another reliable quarterback. They'll use the shotgun about half the time and a read-option package for Troy Smith giving the versatile signal caller the choice to run or pass on almost every single play. He has 11 rushing touchdowns this year and has only thrown 4 interceptions. Unless the Bucks start coughing up fumbles, which they’ve done from time to time, you won’t see the turnovers that the Irish thrives on to survive.

As for rushing, Pittman is a work horse that averages 108.6 yards per game without getting the 25-30 carries of a standard Ohio State tailback. He lacks speed, but is a punishing inside runner that can get you the 3 yards when you need it. He, along with Smith, will wear a defense down. Add in three speedy wideouts (Holmes, Ginn, Gonzalez) that can compete with anyone in the country, and you have a very balanced offensive attack. The Bucks are so balanced that their total yards are almost identical: 2366 passing, 2085 rushing.

Notre Dame's top defender is WLB Brandon Hoyte. This guy has turned into a decent pass rusher and will hit you hard, if he can catch you. The Notre Dame defense lacks both overall size and speed, but doesn't often give up the big play. Look for tOSU to go underneath with crossing patterns in an attempt to get it's far superior speed into the open field. I would like to see tOSU call their plays quickly and get to the line so as not to allow the Irish time to rest.

EDGE: tOSU
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4. SPECIAL TEAMS

This is a definite advantage for the Buckeyes, if they can exploit it. They simply didn’t take care of business here against Michigan and that is the main reason the game turned out to be as close as it was.

Kickers – D.J. Fitzpatrick is 11-17 on field goals and does not have an overpowering leg on kickoffs. Josh Houston has been a pleasant surprise in replacing Mike Nugent, going 20-24 on field goal attempts with plenty of kicks through the end zone for touchbacks.

Punters – Fitzpatrick handles those duties as well, averaging 40 yards per punt. The team has been weak with a 34.8 net (46th in the nation.) A.J. Trapasso has been solid and the Bucks coverage has been even better, ranking 13th in the nation in net punting.

Returners – Ginn is tied for the Big Ten Conference record with 5 career punt returns for touchdowns, and he’s only a sophomore. Holmes has actually averaged more yards (12.8 to 10) per punt return. Ginn has also returned a kick off 100 yards to the house this season. Notre Dame's biggest problem will be not allowing this game to turn into a track meet.

EDGE: tOSU
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5. COACHES

Here is where many people are giving Notre Dame the edge in this match-up. Give Charlie Weiss a month to prepare for a game, they say, and he will tear your defense apart. The problem is that the Buckeyes already know their weakness and Tressell will definitely find a way to mask it given the six week lay off from the Michigan game. Don't forget, this is still the first bowl game Charlie has coached in and he hasn’t had to game plan for anything like this Ohio State defense with his current personelle. What I can tell you about Weiss is this: the best game Notre Dame played all season, they lost. At home. To their biggest rival. Yes, it was the mighty Trojans, but a loss is a loss friends.

Jim Tressell on the other hand? He has gone 4-1 against his biggest rival and 3-1 in bowl games. In fact, Jimmy T is 2-0 in this very Fiesta Bowl. While the games might not always be pretty, Tressell seems to always have his team on an even keel. This allows them to perform at a top level under the most dire of circumstances. Not only that, but looking back over the last six games, the Buckeyes have outscored their opponents 234 to 95, and an impressive 68-10 in the fourth quarter of those contests. If this thing is still close late, give the edge to tOSU.

EDGE: EVEN
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6. PREDICTION

I believe this game will be close until just after halftime. Notre Dame will benefit from a big play in the passing game early and may even take a lead in the first quarter. However, Ohio State will grind the clock and take the lead going into the locker rooms. The Irish will come out hungry in the second half, but this is when the Bucks will shut the Irish passing attack down by putting too much pressure on Quinn. Troy Smith and Co. will take over in the fourth quarter and the Buckeyes will coast to an easy win.

Final Score: The Ohio State University 33 - Notre Dame 17