The Sixth Cents XIII - Preview of The Game

Here we are just hours away from the biggest regular season college football game in recent memory. When was the last time two teams, with this large of a rivalry, met in the final week of the season in a undefeated #1 V. #2 showdown? When was the last time that any game had this much on the line? Conference title, BCS Championship game invitation, Heisman Trophy? I don't think ever. I'm sure you all know where I'm leaning on this one, but I'm going to break it down for you in a special edition of Six Cents. Here we go...
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1. WHAT THEY'VE DONE SO FAR

Both of these teams have gone 11-0 overall and 7-0 thus far in Big Ten games. They will both receive BCS births regardless of the outcome. The question of whether or not they will rematch in the BCS National Championship game on January 8th will be sorted out over the next three weeks, so we'll deal that when we have to. Right now, I don't want to see it happen even if my beloved scarlet and grey happen to lose this game.

The Buckeyes have gone wire-to-wire as the #1 team in every poll imaginable, though at the start of the season their were serious questions surrounding their defense, which we'll get to. They have played just three opponents that were ranked at the time, although the first was a week two victory at the defending national champion and #2 Texas, and another was in the hostile environment of Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City against a #13 Hawkeyes squad that has since fallen apart. They also won a big night game in The Shoe against a tough #24 Penn State squad.

tOSU has outscored their opponents 394-86 for an average score of 36-8. Their 7.8 points allowed per game is tops in the nation and only one time have they allowed more than one touchdown to an opponent.

Michigan began the season at #14 after a 7-5 campaign in 2005 and has slowly worked their way up to their current #2 ranking. The only team they played that was ranked at the time was an upset victory against #2 Notre Dame in South Bend. They did, however, also play Penn State and Iowa, but after those teams had fallen out of the top 25.

There were four other common opponents between the two schools in 2006; Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern and Indiana. In each of these six common games, the Buckeyes scored more points thank the Wolverines and had a larger margin of victory (34 for tOSU, 20 for UM.) The overall margins of victory were 246-43 for Ohio State and 147-49 for Michigan.

Michigan outscored their opponents this season 323-133 for an average score of 29-12. Their 12.09 points allowed per game is good, but while all of the talk in 2006 has revolved around Michigan having the top defensive unit in the nation, tOSU has actually improved on their unit from a year ago and been stingier in points allowed than UM.

Finally, Ohio State's opponents went a combined 55-64 this year and they played just three teams that currently have winning records, including two teams that are at .500. Michigan's opponents were better at 64-55 and they played five teams with winning records including two teams that currently reside in the top 15 in the nation.

Here are the results so far, with current AP rankings of opponents

Michigan (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
9/2 Vanderbilt, W 27-7
9/9 C. Michigan, W 41-7
9/16 at #6 Notre Dame, W 47-21
9/23 Wisconsin, W 27-13
9/30 at Minnesota, W 28-4
10/7 Michigan State, W 31-13
10/14 at Penn State, W 17-10
10/21 Iowa, W 20-6
10/28 Northwestern, W 17-3
11/4 Ball State, W 34-26
11/11 Indiana, W 34-3

Ohio State (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
9/2 Northern Illinois, W 35-12
9/9 at #11 Texas, W 24-7
9/16 Cincinnati, W 37-7
9/23 Penn State, W 28-6
9/30 at Iowa, W 38-17
10/7 Bowling Green, W 35-7
10/14 at Michigan State, W 38-7
10/21 Indiana, W 44-3
10/28 Minnesota, W 44-0
11/4 at Illinois, W 17-10
11/11 Northwestern, W 54-10

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
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2. WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

If you saw my video from Friday afternoon, you'd know my thoughts on Michigan's quarterback, Chad Henne. But that's not the story here at all. The story, my little children, is the Ohio State defense. After losing nine starters from the 2005 season, including all three stud linebackers and three first-round NFL draft picks, they have simply not missed a beat.

Not only that, they've actually been better.

After forcing just 12 turnovers in 2005 with the trio of A.J. Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel, this unit, which started the season as a bunch of no-names, has forced 27 in their first 11 contests. They lead the Big Ten in interceptions. They have been led by the two senior tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson, but the real story has been the Butkus Award finalist and son of a WWF star, Sophomore linebacker James Laurinaitis.

The real problem for Ohio State, at least off and on this season, was their run defense. Normally the strong point of a Jim Tressel team, they were gashed for 171 yards on opening day by Garrett Wolfe and then for a combined 172 yards down in Austin, Texas by the Longhorns. Since then, the have only allowed two teams to total over 100 yards and finished with a season average of 90 yards per game allowed on the ground. A nice recovery, and a testament to how much this defense has improved through the year.

This could benefit the Wolverines if Mike Hart can establish himself early on. Hart has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He recently lost his first fumble since his freshman year, but generally speaking, this guy just doesn't turn it over.

Michigan also has showed some big play capability in the passing game when Mario Manningham was healthy. 9 of his 26 catches are for touchdowns and he is averaging over 20 yards per catch. However, after having surgery a few weeks ago, he hasn't done much of anything in his two games back so far. Meanwhile, Steve Breaston has reemerged for the first time since his freshman season. He has returned a kick for a score and caught a couple of big passes for touchdowns in Manningham's absencee.

Overall, I just can't see Michigan putting up more than two touchdowns on this Ohio State defense. The Wolverines will need help in the kicking game and with a defense score to put major points on the board.

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
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3. WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

I have to admit, this Michigan defense has been impressive. By far the best run defense in the nation, they are also 5th in scoring defense, allowing just over 12 points per game. However, they have been lit up at times in the passing game against big play offenses. The Buckeyes live on the big play.

The running attack for Ohio State starts with Junior tailback Antonio Pittman, but also features a true freshman in Chris "Beanie" Wells and a 3rd string change of pace back, Maurice Wells. Beanie has a tendency to drop the ball from time to time, and almost always, it seems, inside the opponents 10-yard line or in his own territory. However, in order to beat the Wolverines front seven, they will need his straight ahead power running, so hopefully coach Sweatervest bought some stick 'em this week.

The bottom line is this: Ohio State's offense starts and stops with Troy Smith. He's the front runner for the Heisman Trophy this season. The first 100 yard rushing game of his career came against Michigan in an upset win in 2004. His first 300 yard passing game came in last year's version of The Game. Time and time again, he showed his elusiveness and came up with two big scoring drives to lead the Buckeyes in overcoming a 21-12 deficit with less than 8 minutes remaining. Michigan is very good, but are they good enough to stop this dual-threat quarterback? We'll have to wait to see.

Jim Tressel has done a good job of balancing the run and the pass this season, but he's yet to unleash Troy's legs. Look for Smith to solidify the Heisman by using his superior athleticism and decision making skills when the going gets tough. He'll use a number of different receivers in Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez, Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. Senior Roy Hall could even get into the mix as will Tight End Rory Nicol. The Buckeyes have entirely too much speed up field for the Wolverine secondary.

By moving the ball in the air early, they could open up the run game for the backs in the middle of the game. However, if Ohio State has a slim lead late, Tressel wil have to keep the pedal to the floor as they will not be able to run out the clock on plays up the middle like they tried to do in Champaign two weeks ago.

Finally, I truly feel that the Wolverine defense is just a little bit overrated. I know, I know; now that's just crazy talk. Well, they haven't allowed any team to run on them, except the 108 from Minnesota. The did hold the 19th best rushing offense in the country, Wisconsin, to 12 yards. However, the didn't face any of the other top rushing teams in the country. The units they've faced are ranked in this order nationwide:

Vanderbilt 42
C Michigan 63
Notre Dame 86
Wisconsin 19
Minnesota 51
Michigan State 57
Penn State 45
Iowa 53
Northwestern 52
Ball State 107
Indiana 94
Ohio State 20

The difference between the Ohio State and Wisconsin rushing attacks, though similar in yards per game, is the way they get the yards. Wisconsin is a one man show with P.J. Hill. Ohio State has a consistent runner in Pittman (first Buckeye since Eddie George to get back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons,) a power runner in Beanie Wells, a speed back in Maurice Wells, and one of the best mobile quarterbacks this season in college football. Michigan will need to account for all of these weapons, plus the threat of a Ginn or Gonzalez reverse, a Ginn option pass (he already has thrown for one touchdown this year and was a HS quarterback) and the spread attack that the Buckeyes have used throughout the year. Dealing with the change of pace will be a problem.

EDGE: EVEN
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4. SPECIAL TEAMS

With Ted Ginn returning kick-offs and punts, tOSU typically has an advantage in the kicking game. However, we've seen teams use a quick kick and punting out of bounds to keep it out of his hands. The Buckeyes also put Gonzalez back on punts to force opponents to kick to one of them and to always give the threat of a reverse.

Michigan also has a threatening return game with Steve Breaston. He hasn't been as consistently threatening as Ginn over their careers, but he does have four career touchdowns in the punt return game. The key for Ohio State on this end is simple, Michigan can't force the Buckeyes to kick to him because they don't have a dual threat like tOSU does in Ginn and Gonzalez.

Garrett Rivas will handle the place kicking for Michigan and although he is the most accurate kicker in Michigan history, I've seen him in person on more than one occasion and he will miss a big kick from time to time. Ohio State is not much better off with Aaron Pettrey. He's only attempted 11 kicks this season and has connected on 8. He has improved his accuracy throughout the year, and is 2-3 from beyond 50. Rivas has yet to even attempt a kick beyond 48 yards.

Ohio State also has one of the most accurate punters in the country in A.J. Trapasso. He rarely hits a bad ball, gets a quick release to avoid blocks and boom a 60+ yarder just as easily as he can pin a team inside their own 5-yard line.

EDGE: tOSU
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5. COACHES

Jim Tressel, aka sweatervest, gets the nod here giving the edge to the Buckeyes based on his 4-1 record against Lloyd Carr. Going further Sweatervest is just better in big games. The Buckeyes are 3-0 in BCS Bowls and 4-1 overall in bowls since Tressel arrived, not having lost since his first season when he was still playing with all of John Cooper's players.

Carr has dropped two straight to Ohio State and two straight bowl games. He has, however, brought in two new coordinators in the off-season and you can clearly see the improvement in both the defense and the commitment to the running game. Still, I'm going to be a homer until Lloyd Carr proves he can beat Jimmy T.

EDGE: tOSU
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6. PREDICTION

This is always a great football game, no matter how much better one team is than the other. The fact of the matter is that this is the best rivalry in all of sports because there are so many people that grew up in Ohio or Michigan throughout the country. It's big all of the world.

Today's match is obviously heightened due to the #1 V. #2 match-up, the Heisman race, The National Championship and Big Ten implications, and last but certainly not least, the death of the great Bo Schembechler on Friday morning.

The keys to this game are obvious.

1. Can the front seven from Michigan stop Troy Smith? In his first two career meetings, they couldn't, and Ohio State rolled. This is a much better defense for the Blue, but they have yet to face an offense anywhere near as balanced and dynamic as the Buckeyes.

2. The atmosphere. It's no secret that Ohio State is one of the loudest and hostile environments in the country. Add to that the passing of Bo and the rest of the emotion from a game of this magnitude. The first five minutes will go a long way o telling which team is best prepared to play with the controlled rage that Kirk talking about this morning on Gameday.

3. The Special Teams. Ginn, Gonzalez, Breaston, Pettrey, Rivas, Trapasso....if you aren't familiar with these names, get used to them. One or more of these guys could break this game wide open in a hurry.

In the end, I think the Buckeyes speed in all three aspects of the game will be too much for Michigan. Troy Smith will be consistent, but not dominating because he will be pressured for the better part of the game. I believe he will step up and make the 2 or 3 big plays to win this one for the Buckeyes. I also feel that the underrated Buckeye defense will cause a few turnovers to give Ohio State the field position it needs to control the game when it hangs in the balance.

Final Score: The Ohio State University 29 - Michigan 17