The Sixth Cents XIII - Preview of The Game

Here we are just hours away from the biggest regular season college football game in recent memory. When was the last time two teams, with this large of a rivalry, met in the final week of the season in a undefeated #1 V. #2 showdown? When was the last time that any game had this much on the line? Conference title, BCS Championship game invitation, Heisman Trophy? I don't think ever. I'm sure you all know where I'm leaning on this one, but I'm going to break it down for you in a special edition of Six Cents. Here we go...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. WHAT THEY'VE DONE SO FAR

Both of these teams have gone 11-0 overall and 7-0 thus far in Big Ten games. They will both receive BCS births regardless of the outcome. The question of whether or not they will rematch in the BCS National Championship game on January 8th will be sorted out over the next three weeks, so we'll deal that when we have to. Right now, I don't want to see it happen even if my beloved scarlet and grey happen to lose this game.

The Buckeyes have gone wire-to-wire as the #1 team in every poll imaginable, though at the start of the season their were serious questions surrounding their defense, which we'll get to. They have played just three opponents that were ranked at the time, although the first was a week two victory at the defending national champion and #2 Texas, and another was in the hostile environment of Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City against a #13 Hawkeyes squad that has since fallen apart. They also won a big night game in The Shoe against a tough #24 Penn State squad.

tOSU has outscored their opponents 394-86 for an average score of 36-8. Their 7.8 points allowed per game is tops in the nation and only one time have they allowed more than one touchdown to an opponent.

Michigan began the season at #14 after a 7-5 campaign in 2005 and has slowly worked their way up to their current #2 ranking. The only team they played that was ranked at the time was an upset victory against #2 Notre Dame in South Bend. They did, however, also play Penn State and Iowa, but after those teams had fallen out of the top 25.

There were four other common opponents between the two schools in 2006; Minnesota, Michigan State, Northwestern and Indiana. In each of these six common games, the Buckeyes scored more points thank the Wolverines and had a larger margin of victory (34 for tOSU, 20 for UM.) The overall margins of victory were 246-43 for Ohio State and 147-49 for Michigan.

Michigan outscored their opponents this season 323-133 for an average score of 29-12. Their 12.09 points allowed per game is good, but while all of the talk in 2006 has revolved around Michigan having the top defensive unit in the nation, tOSU has actually improved on their unit from a year ago and been stingier in points allowed than UM.

Finally, Ohio State's opponents went a combined 55-64 this year and they played just three teams that currently have winning records, including two teams that are at .500. Michigan's opponents were better at 64-55 and they played five teams with winning records including two teams that currently reside in the top 15 in the nation.

Here are the results so far, with current AP rankings of opponents

Michigan (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
9/2 Vanderbilt, W 27-7
9/9 C. Michigan, W 41-7
9/16 at #6 Notre Dame, W 47-21
9/23 Wisconsin, W 27-13
9/30 at Minnesota, W 28-4
10/7 Michigan State, W 31-13
10/14 at Penn State, W 17-10
10/21 Iowa, W 20-6
10/28 Northwestern, W 17-3
11/4 Ball State, W 34-26
11/11 Indiana, W 34-3

Ohio State (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
9/2 Northern Illinois, W 35-12
9/9 at #11 Texas, W 24-7
9/16 Cincinnati, W 37-7
9/23 Penn State, W 28-6
9/30 at Iowa, W 38-17
10/7 Bowling Green, W 35-7
10/14 at Michigan State, W 38-7
10/21 Indiana, W 44-3
10/28 Minnesota, W 44-0
11/4 at Illinois, W 17-10
11/11 Northwestern, W 54-10

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

If you saw my video from Friday afternoon, you'd know my thoughts on Michigan's quarterback, Chad Henne. But that's not the story here at all. The story, my little children, is the Ohio State defense. After losing nine starters from the 2005 season, including all three stud linebackers and three first-round NFL draft picks, they have simply not missed a beat.

Not only that, they've actually been better.

After forcing just 12 turnovers in 2005 with the trio of A.J. Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel, this unit, which started the season as a bunch of no-names, has forced 27 in their first 11 contests. They lead the Big Ten in interceptions. They have been led by the two senior tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson, but the real story has been the Butkus Award finalist and son of a WWF star, Sophomore linebacker James Laurinaitis.

The real problem for Ohio State, at least off and on this season, was their run defense. Normally the strong point of a Jim Tressel team, they were gashed for 171 yards on opening day by Garrett Wolfe and then for a combined 172 yards down in Austin, Texas by the Longhorns. Since then, the have only allowed two teams to total over 100 yards and finished with a season average of 90 yards per game allowed on the ground. A nice recovery, and a testament to how much this defense has improved through the year.

This could benefit the Wolverines if Mike Hart can establish himself early on. Hart has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He recently lost his first fumble since his freshman year, but generally speaking, this guy just doesn't turn it over.

Michigan also has showed some big play capability in the passing game when Mario Manningham was healthy. 9 of his 26 catches are for touchdowns and he is averaging over 20 yards per catch. However, after having surgery a few weeks ago, he hasn't done much of anything in his two games back so far. Meanwhile, Steve Breaston has reemerged for the first time since his freshman season. He has returned a kick for a score and caught a couple of big passes for touchdowns in Manningham's absencee.

Overall, I just can't see Michigan putting up more than two touchdowns on this Ohio State defense. The Wolverines will need help in the kicking game and with a defense score to put major points on the board.

SLIGHT EDGE: tOSU
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

I have to admit, this Michigan defense has been impressive. By far the best run defense in the nation, they are also 5th in scoring defense, allowing just over 12 points per game. However, they have been lit up at times in the passing game against big play offenses. The Buckeyes live on the big play.

The running attack for Ohio State starts with Junior tailback Antonio Pittman, but also features a true freshman in Chris "Beanie" Wells and a 3rd string change of pace back, Maurice Wells. Beanie has a tendency to drop the ball from time to time, and almost always, it seems, inside the opponents 10-yard line or in his own territory. However, in order to beat the Wolverines front seven, they will need his straight ahead power running, so hopefully coach Sweatervest bought some stick 'em this week.

The bottom line is this: Ohio State's offense starts and stops with Troy Smith. He's the front runner for the Heisman Trophy this season. The first 100 yard rushing game of his career came against Michigan in an upset win in 2004. His first 300 yard passing game came in last year's version of The Game. Time and time again, he showed his elusiveness and came up with two big scoring drives to lead the Buckeyes in overcoming a 21-12 deficit with less than 8 minutes remaining. Michigan is very good, but are they good enough to stop this dual-threat quarterback? We'll have to wait to see.

Jim Tressel has done a good job of balancing the run and the pass this season, but he's yet to unleash Troy's legs. Look for Smith to solidify the Heisman by using his superior athleticism and decision making skills when the going gets tough. He'll use a number of different receivers in Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez, Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. Senior Roy Hall could even get into the mix as will Tight End Rory Nicol. The Buckeyes have entirely too much speed up field for the Wolverine secondary.

By moving the ball in the air early, they could open up the run game for the backs in the middle of the game. However, if Ohio State has a slim lead late, Tressel wil have to keep the pedal to the floor as they will not be able to run out the clock on plays up the middle like they tried to do in Champaign two weeks ago.

Finally, I truly feel that the Wolverine defense is just a little bit overrated. I know, I know; now that's just crazy talk. Well, they haven't allowed any team to run on them, except the 108 from Minnesota. The did hold the 19th best rushing offense in the country, Wisconsin, to 12 yards. However, the didn't face any of the other top rushing teams in the country. The units they've faced are ranked in this order nationwide:

Vanderbilt 42
C Michigan 63
Notre Dame 86
Wisconsin 19
Minnesota 51
Michigan State 57
Penn State 45
Iowa 53
Northwestern 52
Ball State 107
Indiana 94
Ohio State 20

The difference between the Ohio State and Wisconsin rushing attacks, though similar in yards per game, is the way they get the yards. Wisconsin is a one man show with P.J. Hill. Ohio State has a consistent runner in Pittman (first Buckeye since Eddie George to get back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons,) a power runner in Beanie Wells, a speed back in Maurice Wells, and one of the best mobile quarterbacks this season in college football. Michigan will need to account for all of these weapons, plus the threat of a Ginn or Gonzalez reverse, a Ginn option pass (he already has thrown for one touchdown this year and was a HS quarterback) and the spread attack that the Buckeyes have used throughout the year. Dealing with the change of pace will be a problem.

EDGE: EVEN
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. SPECIAL TEAMS

With Ted Ginn returning kick-offs and punts, tOSU typically has an advantage in the kicking game. However, we've seen teams use a quick kick and punting out of bounds to keep it out of his hands. The Buckeyes also put Gonzalez back on punts to force opponents to kick to one of them and to always give the threat of a reverse.

Michigan also has a threatening return game with Steve Breaston. He hasn't been as consistently threatening as Ginn over their careers, but he does have four career touchdowns in the punt return game. The key for Ohio State on this end is simple, Michigan can't force the Buckeyes to kick to him because they don't have a dual threat like tOSU does in Ginn and Gonzalez.

Garrett Rivas will handle the place kicking for Michigan and although he is the most accurate kicker in Michigan history, I've seen him in person on more than one occasion and he will miss a big kick from time to time. Ohio State is not much better off with Aaron Pettrey. He's only attempted 11 kicks this season and has connected on 8. He has improved his accuracy throughout the year, and is 2-3 from beyond 50. Rivas has yet to even attempt a kick beyond 48 yards.

Ohio State also has one of the most accurate punters in the country in A.J. Trapasso. He rarely hits a bad ball, gets a quick release to avoid blocks and boom a 60+ yarder just as easily as he can pin a team inside their own 5-yard line.

EDGE: tOSU
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. COACHES

Jim Tressel, aka sweatervest, gets the nod here giving the edge to the Buckeyes based on his 4-1 record against Lloyd Carr. Going further Sweatervest is just better in big games. The Buckeyes are 3-0 in BCS Bowls and 4-1 overall in bowls since Tressel arrived, not having lost since his first season when he was still playing with all of John Cooper's players.

Carr has dropped two straight to Ohio State and two straight bowl games. He has, however, brought in two new coordinators in the off-season and you can clearly see the improvement in both the defense and the commitment to the running game. Still, I'm going to be a homer until Lloyd Carr proves he can beat Jimmy T.

EDGE: tOSU
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. PREDICTION

This is always a great football game, no matter how much better one team is than the other. The fact of the matter is that this is the best rivalry in all of sports because there are so many people that grew up in Ohio or Michigan throughout the country. It's big all of the world.

Today's match is obviously heightened due to the #1 V. #2 match-up, the Heisman race, The National Championship and Big Ten implications, and last but certainly not least, the death of the great Bo Schembechler on Friday morning.

The keys to this game are obvious.

1. Can the front seven from Michigan stop Troy Smith? In his first two career meetings, they couldn't, and Ohio State rolled. This is a much better defense for the Blue, but they have yet to face an offense anywhere near as balanced and dynamic as the Buckeyes.

2. The atmosphere. It's no secret that Ohio State is one of the loudest and hostile environments in the country. Add to that the passing of Bo and the rest of the emotion from a game of this magnitude. The first five minutes will go a long way o telling which team is best prepared to play with the controlled rage that Kirk talking about this morning on Gameday.

3. The Special Teams. Ginn, Gonzalez, Breaston, Pettrey, Rivas, Trapasso....if you aren't familiar with these names, get used to them. One or more of these guys could break this game wide open in a hurry.

In the end, I think the Buckeyes speed in all three aspects of the game will be too much for Michigan. Troy Smith will be consistent, but not dominating because he will be pressured for the better part of the game. I believe he will step up and make the 2 or 3 big plays to win this one for the Buckeyes. I also feel that the underrated Buckeye defense will cause a few turnovers to give Ohio State the field position it needs to control the game when it hangs in the balance.

Final Score: The Ohio State University 29 - Michigan 17

This one is not work appropriate

Just put your ear phones in, keep the volume low, or wait until you get home.

Thanks to my cousin, Neil, for the video and to Fitz for showing me how to put videos up!

Dead Schembechlers not so funny anymore

On a serious note, Bo Schembechler has died this morning at the age of 77.

Out of respect for a great, great man, and member of the Cradle of Coaches at Miami University, I will refrain from commenting and also from posting the youtube video from the song entitled, "Bomb Ann Arbor Now" like I originally intended. But I will still link it for you....

A somewhat classy gesture from the band:

The band wishes to say, "We are crushed to learn of the death of Bo Schembechler, OSU's most valiant foe."

A Few Good Men Laughs at TSUN's Expense

I'll be doing the preview post sometime tonight in a special edition post. I'm not sure when it'll be up, but I have a couple hours to kill before my soccer game at 8:15 tonight. If it's not up by then, check back tomorrow morning while you're watching College Gameday live from Columbus, Ohio.





















This one is for the two most important girls in the world: my sister, Amber, and Jennifer. I know you both love your Mini Coopers.






















































Joke #5
----------
One foggy night, a Buckeye fan was heading north from Columbus and a Michigan fan was driving south from Ann Arbor. While crossing a narrow bridge, they hit each other head-on, mangling both cars. The Michigan fan manages to climb out of his car and survey the damage. He looks at his twisted car and says, "Man, I'm lucky to be alive!"

Likewise, the Buckeye fan gets out of his car uninjured, he too feeling fortunate to have survived. The Wolverine fan walks over to the Buckeye fan and says, "Hey, man, I think this is a sign that we should put away our petty differences and live as friends instead of being rivals."

The Buckeye fan thinks for a moment and says, "You know, you're absolutely right! We should be friends. In fact, I'm going to see if something else survived the wreck."

The Buckeye fan then pops open his trunk and removes a full, undamaged bottle of Jack Daniel's. He says to the Wolverine, "I think this is another sign- we should toast to our newfound friendship."

The Wolverine fan agrees and grabs the bottle. After sucking down half of the bottle, the Wolverine fan hands it back to the Buckeye fan and says, "Your turn!"

The Buckeye fan calmly twists the cap back on the bottle, throws the rest of the bottle over the bridge into the river and says, "Nah, I think I'll just wait for the cops to show up."

The U.S. Armed Forces love the Buckeyes, so should you!

You'd better be rooting for Ohio State on Saturday, or W. will use these guys to go "shock and awe" on your asses!

Here is a great picture of some Iraqi kids doing the O-H-I-O.

Here are a couple of soldiers in the back of what appears to be a transport helicopter or cargo plane.

Here is a Buckeye soldier in front of one of Sadam's palaces.

Here and here are soldiers in front of some ground assault vehicles.

This is a shot of some members of the Ohio National Guard during a tailgate for the OSU-NIU game earlier this year.

Finally, here are some troops with a chopper in the background and a big Buckeye flag.


Joke#4
--------
A guy in a bar leans over to the guy next to him and says, "Wanna hear a Michigan joke?"

The guy next to him replies, "Well before you tell that joke, you should know something. I'm 6' tall, 200 lbs., and I am a former Michigan football player. The guy sitting next to me is 6 ' 2" tall, weighs 225, and he's a former Michigan football player. The fella next to him is 6 ' 5" tall, weighs 250, and he's a former Michigan football player. Now, you still wanna tell that joke?"

The first guy says, "NAH, not if I'm gonna have to explain it THREE times."

For Fitz

Sorry I didn't get this up here last night, a bunch of us went to a bar called Take Five over on Southport. The Miami Alumni Association set up a viewing party for the Miami-Bowling Green game that was on ESPN2. It was a pretty good time and believe it or not, Jackson Rohm showed up and played after the game ended. It was kind of odd seeing and hearing him play in a place that he couldn't make out with freshman after the show, but, whatever. Miami even won, improving to 2-9 on the season, thanks to a missed 23-yard field goal with 41 seconds remaining. The game was played in a down pour and the field at Bowling Green was a giant mud pit. Congrats boys, well done!

Anyways, the bar itself...I'm annoyed that the alumni committee picked it, because it turns out, it's a Michigan bar. Odds are I'll never set foot in it again even though it's a mere four blocks from my house. Of course, there was a cute little waitress that I was trying to flirt with, but I'm basically a huge embarrassing failure on that end and my heart is elsewhere lately. Plus she works in a damn Michigan bar! Not worth it!

On with the joke:

Coaches Jim Tressel and Lloyd Carr are walking down the beach talking about the new rivalry that started when Jim took over as tOSU head coach. As they are walking, Lloyd trips over something in the sand. Upon closer inspection it turns out to be a genie's lamp.

"Who disturbs me?" asked the genie. Jim and Lloyd both say they did it.

"You will each get one wish," said the genie.

Lloyd offers to go first. "I want an impenetrable wall built around the entire state of Michigan so that none of those stupid Ohioans can ever get in. I want it as far down into the ground as it is high, and I want it to be completely sealed in so that we can finally have our peace!"

The genie grants the wish to Lloyd and he is instantly whisked away to his new paradise. The genie now tells Jim he'll grant him one wish.

Jim says, "Fill it up with water."



Alright, one more since I was tardy with that one....

A little boy and his mother were walking through a cemetery when they came upon a headstone that read: "Here lies a Michigan graduate and a good man."

The little boy asked his mother,"Mommy, why did they bury two people in there?"

Like a Good Neighbor...

State Farm is there.

I love State Farm. They were so helpful with my apartment fire back in January of 2004. Hard to believe that was almost three years ago. Wow.

For some damn reason blogger is not allowing my pictures to upload, so I'm going to have to link them. If anyone knows why I'd be having trouble with that, please let me know. Possible because I took the pictures off a website? Any way to get around that? Also, can somebody email me and tell me how the hell to post Youtube videos? I've yet to figure that out on this damn thing. No worries, all of the links here are work appropriate and some of them are extremely amusing. Today's sampling comes from a website that did a nice compilation of great Ohio State photos called Michigan Still Sucks.

Here is a great sign in the Columbus Airport.

And here is a nice shot of the two best junior wideouts in college football. I pray that at least one of them returns for their senior season, though, I don't think either will. This one reminds me of The Boondock Saints. "We may not always be doing business, but we're allllllllways open."

The final picture of the day is totally photoshoped, but it's still funny.

So for all you faithful members of the Buckeye Nation, there will be more to follow, probably tonight. I'm planning on doing the preview post on Friday where I will break down the match-ups just as I did for the Fiesta Bowl beat down of the Drunken Irish. I am a miraculous 5-0 when making my picks on this site.

1. Ohio State 33 (-4.5) over Notre Dame 17 -- Final: tOSU 34-20
2. Texas over USC Trojans -- Final: UT 41-38
3. Steelers 23 (+3.5) over BRONCOS 17 -- Final: PIT 34-17
4. SEAHAWKS 27 (-3.5) over Panthers 20 -- Final: SEA 34-14
5. Steelers 29 (-4) over Seahawks 23 -- Final: PIT 21-10
---------
Results
---------
Picking the winners: 5-0
Picking against the spread: 5-0

Later on today I will have my second horribly dumb joke, followed by some more anti-TSUN pictures tomorrow. Until then...have a good afternoon and GO BUCKS!

The week of The Game

Alright kiddies, I know it's Tuesday and I'm a little behind the eight ball here, but this is the week of The Game. And if you don't know what game I'm talking about, just come back some time around Thanksgiving. Until then, we're all Buckeyes, all the time. Here's a little taste to start you off:

A highly recruited high school football player was visiting schools to try and find the best college for him. His first stop was at Miami. When he got there, Larry Coker immediately picked up a golden telephone. After talking several minutes, he said, "Thank you, God," and hung up.

This shocked the young man. He asked the coach what was so special about the golden phone. "Well, this phone is a direct line to God. And God tells us whether or not new recruits would be stars at our university.

The athlete asked if he could use the phone to ask God what college he should pick "Sure, you can! But it's going to cost you $1,000. Calling Heaven ain't cheap."

The fellow didn't have that kind of money, so he moved along.

His next stop was Michigan. Upon entering Lloyd Carr's office, Coach Carr immediately picked up a golden telephone. After talking several minutes, he said, "Thank you, God" and hung up.

The boy said, "Hey, I've seen those phones before. Can I use yours to call God and ask what college I should pick?"

Lloyd said, "Sure, but it's going to cost you $750. Calling Heaven isn't cheap.."

Again, not having that kind of money, the lad left. His last stop was in Columbus, Ohio. Upon arrival at the office, Coach Tressel picked up a golden telephone, talked to God, and said, "Thanks," and hung up.

The boy just had to use that phone, so he said, "Coach, I really need to use that golden telephone so I can call God and ask him which college I should choose.From Florida it was going to cost me $1000. From Michigan they wanted $750. So how much will it cost me to call Heaven from here in Columbus?"

The coach smiled and said, "Nothing, Son. It's a local call."

Random thoughts on a lazy Friday

I know I was getting better for awhile there, and then I completely fell back off the wagon the past two weeks. I apologize to all five of my loyal contituents.

Today would have been my mother's 58th birthday. She died of cancer in August 1992 just before the start of my 8th grade year at Roehm Middle School in Berea. November 10th and August 19th are usually the two most difficult days of the year for me and I just can't seem to focus today.

Going back to the topic of constituents...this was election week and there were some major shake ups in the House and Senate. I know many of you are very excited about the change in leadership, and despite my being a conservative guy politically, I welcome a balance of power. I believe that now our entire government can work together to straighten a few things out. I just hope that Senator McCain wins the next election because an all Democrat government will be no better than what we had before. My final thought is a sad note regarding one of the classiest and friendliest politicians out there. Jim Talent is one of the unfortunate victims of the backlash against the GOP as he lost a close race against a clearly inferior opponent. Missouri will miss him, I assure you that.

So, after my little story about the forbidden fruit a few weeks back, things actually turned around 180 degrees. We talked things out and decided to take a real shot at dating, chosing to ignore all of the other complications and just be together and see what happened. Things went very well and we got close pretty fast....maybe too fast. You see, she is as restless as the North Wind and that doesn't bode well for relationships. We decided to call it quits for good on Wednesday. Well, rather, she decided. The first song I heard on the radio on the way home that night started with these words:

I know a girl
She puts the color inside of my world
But she's just like a maze
Where all of the walls all continually change
And I've done all I can
To stand on her steps with my heart in my hands
Now I'm starting to see
Maybe it's got nothing to do with me

Fitting.

Tomorrow I'm heading up to Evanston with Hutch and Donna to catch the Ohio State - Northwestern game. Hopefully the Buckeyes can cheer me up.